Cndv 110 Mt Europe West 3
Cndv 110 Mt Europe West 3
figure 2.16 shows the spatial distribution of the most pronounced cooling effects of increasing biomass. it shows that subtropical savanna areas will cool, and that increases in woody vegetation are not in all regions expected to result in cooling. this is particularly true in southeastern china and in the deforested areas of west africa. in addition, greening will increase on a global scale, particularly in the deforested areas of west africa (monteiro et al. 2012 1119 ), and on a regional scale in areas of east asia (ma et al. 2013b 1120 ).
global biome type classes were not considered in this chapter, but were included in the chapter on warming. however, local scale feedbacks such as water and fire regimes, local n deposition, grazing, wildfire or local vegetation change can play a significant role in the establishment of regional biomes and had been discussed in some details in chapter 2.5. global change will also have direct effects on the dynamics and locations of biomes. for example, the warming and drying trends of pines and evergreen broadleaved forests in eastern north america are expected to shift the western limit of boreal forests (high confidence) and reduce their area (high confidence). important issues are the description of the feedbacks that anthropogenic warming will induce. issues will be that the feedbacks will mainly depend on local and regional conditions and on land use. these feedbacks are not yet fully understood (genton 2017 1121 ) and will play a significant role in the land use and land cover changes and local ecosystem changes. if changes in precipitation extremes, local fire regimes and water stress have different time scales in tropical versus temperate vegetation, these are also not fully understood and will lead to differing results. our results for the most relevant biome types in west africa and europe show that changes in vegetation due to land use are already competing, or will do so in the future, with the direct anthropogenic climate change feedbacks. in addition, savanna systems benefit from a global trend of increased precipitation, either through n deposition or longer growing season (monteiro et al. 2012 1122 ). in west africa, the regional climate change is expected to cool the local ecosystem. in europe, the biome types are under threat by widespread drought (medium confidence). the latter is mainly associated with increased temperature extremes and variability, which is projected to decrease the water supply in most regions of the world (giannini et al. 2018 1123 ). it is likely that natural ecosystems, that have a global vegetation cover of about 65% (myneni and hansen 2004 1124 ), will be more severely affected than other biomes, which have global vegetation covers of about 75% in south america and africa, 75% in north america, and 50% in europe. it is not only natural ecosystems that are at risk.
Aside from the issue of increasing frequency or intensity of drought, a second more general form of increased impacts on ecosystems and people are changes in intensity of impacts from extreme events. For example, increased frequency of flooding leads to more time needed for extensive clean-up activities, disruption of local ecosystems and social disruptions (Mayewski et al. 2010 255 ; Dalio et al. 2015 256 ; Ivanov et al. 2011 257 ; Stott et al. 2010 258 ). Spatial ( 4 ) and temporal variability in the ability of socioeconomic processes to adapt to droughts, and consequent impacts of droughts, have led to large differences in drought frequency in Europe, of 10- to 100-fold (Fitzpatrick 2010 259 ; Wigley 2015 260 ). In Europe, adaptation strategies are applied at different scales, with a majority of households and systems managing extreme drought events through levelling, land use change and landscape management (Caplan et al. 2014 261 ). Pre-emptive strategies have also been effective in a small number of cases, for example, flood warning systems and using sea walls to protect cities (Pike et al. 2016 262 ; Brown and Diffenbaugh 2017 263 ). 5ec8ef588b
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